BIOSTATISTICS, EPIDEMIOLOGY + EBM
YEAR 1 | PAGE 44C - STUDY DESIGN, DIAGNOSTIC TESTS, EFFECTS + TRIAL INTERPRETATION
BIOSTATS FRAME: DESIGN -> DIRECTION OF SAMPLING -> MEASURE / DENOMINATOR -> BIAS / CONFOUNDING -> ESTIMATE + PRECISION -> CLINICAL INTERPRETATION. REBUILD THE 2x2 TABLE WHEN THE STEM TURNS QUANTITATIVE. H. BIOSTATS / EPI / EBM REVIEW MAP
| Domain | Must retrieve without notes | Application |
|---|---|---|
| Study design | RCT, cohort, case-control, cross-sectional, ecological, diagnostic, systematic review/meta-analysis. | Identify how subjects were selected and what measure can validly be estimated. |
| Disease / effect measures Diagnostic tests | Incidence, prevalence, RR, OR, ARR/ARI, RRR, NNT/NNH, hazard concepts. Sensitivity/specificity, PPV/NPV, likelihood ratios, cutoff shifts and prevalence effects. | Choose correct denominator and interpret effect in plain language. Reconstruct 2x2 table and distinguish test characteristics from post-test predictive value. |
| Inference | Mean/median, SD/SEM, CI, p value, Type I/II error, power, effect size and precision. | Separate statistical significance from precision, magnitude and clinical significance. |
| Validity / EBM | Selection/information/recall/observer bias; confounding; effect modification; randomization/blinding; attrition; PICO. | Read a trial/abstract for design quality, endpoint, effect, precision and applicability. |
BIOSTATS FRAME: DESIGN -> DIRECTION OF SAMPLING -> MEASURE / DENOMINATOR -> BIAS / CONFOUNDING -> ESTIMATE + PRECISION -> CLINICAL INTERPRETATION. REBUILD THE 2x2 TABLE WHEN THE STEM TURNS QUANTITATIVE. H. BIOSTATS / EPI / EBM REVIEW MAP — I. DEEP REVIEW RESOURCES - DIRECT & PLAYABLE
Study Designs - Osmosis - RCT, cohort, case-control, cross-sectional and ecological designs. How to Solve USMLE Step 1 Biostatistics - Randy Neil, MD - 2x2 tables, designs and quantitative strategy. Biostatistics Questions Fast - Randy Neil, MD - board-style rapid calculation and interpretation. Case-Control vs Cohort - Randy Neil, MD - sampling direction -> OR vs RR. Sensitivity, Specificity, PPV, NPV - Dirty Medicine - diagnostic-test discrimination and prevalence effects. How to Appraise a Clinical Trial - Strong Medicine - validity, endpoints, effect size and clinical interpretation.
BIOSTATS FRAME: DESIGN -> DIRECTION OF SAMPLING -> MEASURE / DENOMINATOR -> BIAS / CONFOUNDING -> ESTIMATE + PRECISION -> CLINICAL INTERPRETATION. REBUILD THE 2x2 TABLE WHEN THE STEM TURNS QUANTITATIVE. H. BIOSTATS / EPI / EBM REVIEW MAP — J. TOP 10 MOST-MISSED CONCEPTS - #7 TO #8 7. Identify the study design before selecting the formula Deep explanation
The way participants are sampled determines what can be estimated. Cohorts start with exposure and follow toward outcome; case-control studies start with outcome and look backward toward exposure. The design sets the valid association measure.
BIOSTATS FRAME: DESIGN -> DIRECTION OF SAMPLING -> MEASURE / DENOMINATOR -> BIAS / CONFOUNDING -> ESTIMATE + PRECISION -> CLINICAL INTERPRETATION. REBUILD THE 2x2 TABLE WHEN THE STEM TURNS QUANTITATIVE. H. BIOSTATS / EPI / EBM REVIEW MAP — J. TOP 10 MOST-MISSED CONCEPTS - #7 TO #8 7. Identify the study design before selecting the formula Deep explanation
| Resource | Description | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Why learners miss it | Formula memorization encourages learners to search for numbers before understanding the study. |
BIOSTATS FRAME: DESIGN -> DIRECTION OF SAMPLING -> MEASURE / DENOMINATOR -> BIAS / CONFOUNDING -> ESTIMATE + PRECISION -> CLINICAL INTERPRETATION. REBUILD THE 2x2 TABLE WHEN THE STEM TURNS QUANTITATIVE. H. BIOSTATS / EPI / EBM REVIEW MAP — J. TOP 10 MOST-MISSED CONCEPTS - #7 TO #8 7. Identify the study design before selecting the formula Deep explanation
| Easiest clue | Ask: how did subjects enter the study? That usually reveals the design and the correct measure. |
|---|---|
| 8. Sensitivity/specificity are test properties; predictive values depend on the tested population Deep explanation | Sensitivity and specificity condition on disease status, while PPV/NPV condition on the test result. Changing prevalence shifts PPV and NPV even when sensitivity/specificity stay unchanged. |
| Why learners miss it Easiest clue | All four metrics are taught in one 2x2 table and the conditioning direction is easily reversed. Read the denominator. Disease column -> sensitivity/specificity; test-result row/column -> predictive value. |
K. EBM / CALCULATION ERROR-LOG TAGS
| Tag | Typical miss | Repair |
|---|---|---|
| DESIGN DENOMINATOR | Wrong study type or sampling direction. Correct concept name, wrong population in denominator. | Write entry criterion and time direction before formula. Rebuild 2x2 table or write numerator/denominator in words. |
| VALIDITY INFERENCE 2026/27 foundational-review expanded edition - verify school and official exam updates before testing | Missed bias/confounding/attrition/generalizability threat. Treated p, CI, power, effect size and clinical importance as synonyms. | State mechanism of distortion and which design feature addresses it. Interpret each statistic in one plain-language sentence. |